Strengths and Weaknesses of US Foreign Policy

Dr. Gayane Novikova

October 16, 2024

A rapidly-changing strategic landscape demands additional flexibility from global and regional actors.President Biden’s mantra in his first days in the White House – “America is back” – indicated the renewed involvement of the USA in world affairs. It also meant that the US modus operandi as the most advanced actor in the great power competition, will be defined by its focus on preventing – as much as possible – any strategic vacuum that can be filled by its rivals, primarily China and, to a lesser extent, Russia. See more…

The South Caucasus in the Shadow of the War in Ukraine

Dr. Gayane Novikova

May 8, 2023

The trilateral ceasefire agreement signed on 9 November 2020 between Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Russia created a serious shift in the balance of powers in the South Caucasus. Consequently, Russia’s influence on developments in this region has been brought into question by the close alliance between Turkey and Azerbaijan. For its part, Armenia has tried to recover following its devastating defeat on the battlefield. To the north, Georgia’s priorities continue to be framed by internal developments. See more…

THE TURKEY-AZERBAIJAN-ISRAEL AXIS: PRAGMATIC AS EVER

Dr. Gayane Novikova

December 20, 2022

The ties and activity within the Turkey-Israel-Azerbaijan triad are motivated by mutual national and strategic interests and/or by coinciding political reasoning. The Broader Middle East and the Eastern Mediterranean constitute a complex geopolitical area saturated by a diversity of actors. Even though the preservation of fragile balance between them can become problematic, these states are steadily moving toward closer cooperation with each other. See more…

FIGHTING FOR CALIPHATE. NOT REALLY

Dr. Gayane Novikova

March 20, 2022

The withdrawal of the Soviet troops from Afghanistan in 1989, dissolution of Yugoslavia and the war in Bosnia (1992-1995), the collapse of the Soviet Union, proclamation of the independent Republic of Ichkeria (Chechnya) and the first Russian-Chechen war (1994-96) —

triggered a global jihad in the end of 1980s – beginning 1990s. The Arab Spring greatly contributed to a further spread of Islamic radicalism. An establishment of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) and its branches in Afghanistan, North Caucasus, Central Asia, in several African states, Islamists mobility and ability to mobilize the most vulnerable segments in the different societies, increasing numbers of terrorist attacks against civilians, as well as an involvement of Islamist militants in the international conflicts and civil wars, – all these factors are the sources of concern for governments and societies dealing with unconventional threats. The Nagorniy Karabakh (NK) conflict provides a unique example where an internal utilization of the Islamic factor has intertwined with a long history of involvement and participation of Islamists mercenaries on the side of one of the parties – Azerbaijan. See more…

RUSSIA’S BELT OF (IN)SECURITY

Dr. Gayane Novikova

November 20, 2021

Developments along Russia’s external borders require the precise attention of its political and military circles. In addition to the complicated relationships with the U.S., the EU, and China, Russia feels to a certain degree insecure as a result of a) being surrounded by non-friendly Baltic States, Poland, Ukraine, and Georgia; b) trying to maintain balanced relations with Armenia and Azerbaijan; and c) attempting to avoid any problems in Central Asia in the aftermath of the Afghan crisis. Russia builds its security belt either keeping or installing military bases or involving – sometimes forcibly –vulnerable neighboring states into its political, military, and economic spheres of influence. In the meantime, more “egocentric” Russia conducts a selective foreign policy, that focuses on those areas where it can gain maximum strategic advantage. In the meantime, serious limitations are apparent in Russia’s multilateral security policy. See more…

SIGNIFICANT SHIFTS IN THE GEOPOLITICS OF THE SOUTH CAUCASUS

Dr. Gayane Novikova

September 21, 2021

A new status quo has emerged after the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war in the South Caucasus. Its main manifestations can be defined.

Involvement of the major global actors in the regional conflicts is diminishing, especially when viewed against the background of global security concerns related to health, poverty, migration, inequality, and cyber security.  Although the current U.S. administration has announced “a return of America on the global stage” and the EU leadership has stressed its readiness to contribute to peace in the South Caucasus, leverage to deal with hard security issues is lacking on both sides. Their involvement in regional affairs will be limited to assisting the implementation of “soft power” programs. China is seeking to expand its economic might, mainly through its “Belt and Road Initiative,” a part of which includes the South Caucasus states. In the meantime, China faces several serious domestic problems and economic challenges all of which have slowed down its economic involvement in this region.

Regional security issues have increasingly become a source of concern and area of responsibility for the regional powers – Russia, Turkey, and Iran: their interaction is shaping the security environment. Hard security measures will remain a prerogative of Russia, Turkey, and – to a lesser extent – Iran.

These transformations should be taken into account in any further discussions on the security of the entire region and each of its constituent states: Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia. In the next several years the South Caucasus states will become fully involved in a direct and rigorous Russian-Turkish geopolitical rivalry.  See more…

ARMENIA: THE TECTONIC FAULT

Dr. Gayane Novikova

April 17, 2021

The full-fledged Karabakh war (September 27 – November 9-10, 2020) has become a watershed in the post-Soviet history of Armenia. It will take time to evaluate human, territorial, economic, political, and moral losses, to recover, to strengthen the sovereignty of the country, and to overcome the aftermath of this war. The aims of this article are a) to discuss the challenges Armenia is facing currently and b) to attempt to offer ways out of this dangerous situation. Some parts of this puzzle are still missing; many questions remain unanswered.  See more…

Security Challenges in the COVID-19 Epoch: The Case of Armenia

Dr. Gayane Novikova

October 18, 2020

Since February, 2020, the Armenian state and society have been dealing with an aggravating public health crisis and growing economic and social risks.  A sharp economic decline in the course of the COVID-19 pandemic is unavoidable. Although internal challenges stem from a gradually worsening economic situation; however, several issues specific to Armenia should be mentioned.

Internal Challenges

The post-revolutionary Armenian government has been simultaneously introducing and implementing a variety of economic, political, and legal reforms and actions. Many affect the interests of former corrupt political and economic elites.  Moreover, some of the economic reforms are not popular among those strata expecting quick and significant changes in their lives. Thus, the anger of the “formers” has coincided with disappointment by that segment of Prime Minister Pashinyan’s supporters who demand more radical measures.

See more …

The Policy of the United States in the South Caucasus

Dr. Gayane Novikova
April  20, 2019

Any discussion regarding the current stage of U.S. foreign policy contains more questions than answers. The more recent trend has been determined by the slogan “America First!”, which means on the one hand that the U.S. is moving toward a more isolationistic policy. Steps which aim to serve only American interests can be to some extent provocative and unpredictable: In many cases they can give an impulse to irreversible changes in the security environment in certain regions. On the other hand, there is both a visible and hidden continuity in respect to the main directions and approaches toward the core issues of the American foreign policy.

Chechnya’s Enigma in the Geopolitical Context

Dr. Gayane Novikova
September 21, 2018

The Chechen conflict in Russia and with Russia echoes in many areas of the world. We can trace the Chechen fighters in the Nagorniy Karabakh conflict (where for a short period of time Chechen mercenaries were fighting alongside the Afghani mujaheddins against the local Armenians), in the Abkhazian conflict (where they supported their Abkhazian kin against the Georgian government), in Afghanistan after the U.S. invasion in late 2001, and in the Western Balkans (in Kosovo and Bosnia and Herzegovina). Most recently, they were fighting in Ukraine in support of both the Ukrainian and pro-Russian parties to the conflict: The Chechen “Depth battalion” with 300 fighters of were supporting the pro-Russian rebels in Donetsk, and the Dzhokhar Dudayev battalion was fighting on the side of the Ukrainian government.  Chechens were also among the military leadership of ISIS in Syria and Iraq. Their nom de guerre, al-Shishani (“Chechen” in Arabic) identifies their ethnicity.

Crimea: Sink or Swim in Russia’s Waters

Dr. Gayane Novikova
June 20, 2018
A transfer of Crimea out of the Russian SSR under the Ukrainian SSR jurisdiction in February 1954 became the cornerstone of an international conflict between two sovereign states immediately after the dissolution of the Soviet Union. A long-term high-intensity hybrid war prepared the foundation for the legal, political, diplomatic, and geopolitical confrontations which transformed into a low-intensity conventional war in mid-February of 2014. Tensions reached their peak on March 16, 2014, when the majority of the population of the Autonomous Republic of Crimea voted for independence from Ukraine. On March 18, 2014, President Putin announced a reunification of Crimea with the Russian Federation. For the rest of the world this action was viewed as an annexation of part of the territory of neighboring Ukraine by Russia, and its incorporation into the Russian Federation.

The Nagorniy Karabakh Conflict: A Simmering War on the European Periphery

Dr. Gayane Novikova
October 21, 2017

Shaping the European Security System

The European security is under siege. Several factors are making it more vulnerable in the face of correlated and co-dependent internal and external threats. The reaction of European societies to major internal threats has been manifest in Brexit, in the German elections, in the referendum on independence in Catalonia and the response of the Spanish government, in the Visegrad Four’s approach to several core issues, in Turkey’s foreign and domestic policies, — and last but not least — in home-grown terrorism. Therefore, while a prevention of uncontrolled migration is a priority and it shapes an internal line of division in many European societies, the vulnerability along the EU’s external borders is a source of growing concern, that has united them.

These developments strongly demand a re-evaluation of the scale of (in)security and threats for each European state and for the European Union in general, especially against the background on the one hand of growing nationalism and, on the other hand, of both an unpredictable U.S. foreign policy and a prolonged standoff with Russia. The EU has become increasingly nervous regarding the U.S. — Russia confrontation that almost completely follows the patterns of the Cold War. In the context of the new Cold War the wars in the immediate (Ukraine) and distant (South Caucasus, Middle East) neighborhoods — where Russia’s direct involvement is evident — demand more attention. A new strategy toward the still unresolved conflicts in the European periphery should be designed based upon an acknowledgement that the security of Europe in broader terms depends in many ways upon the security in its neighborhoods.

Armenia and the South Caucasus Security System

Dr. Gayane Novikova
September 15, 2017

A Few Conclusions after the April Parliamentary Election

Gayane Novikova
May 1, 2017

Armenia: Some Features of Internal (In)Stability

Dr. Gayane Novikova
March 17, 2017

A Precarious Case: Interaction Between State and Society in Armenia

By Dr. Gayane Novikova
December 8, 2015

ARMENIA: BALANCING ON THE VERGE OF…

New Caucasus interview with Gayane Novikova, Founding Director of the Center for Strategic Analysis SPECTRUM
Translation is coming soon.
Nugzar Gogorishvili
October 12, 2015

Gayane Novikova: The South Caucasus States are Trapped by the Ukrainian Crisis

ArmInfo’s interview with Gayane Novikova, Founding Director of the Center for Strategic Analysis SPECTRUM
Emmanuel Mkrtchian

April 21, 2015

Gayane Novikova: The President of Armenia is interested in promotion of European values and mechanisms which can contribute to the establishment of solid economic, political, and person-to-person relations between Armenia and the EU

Interview of Dr. Gayane Novikova to ArmInfo Independent News Agency

November 15, 2012

Gayane Novikova: The Armenian side must continue the negotiations over the Nagorno Karabakh conflict resolution

Interview of Dr. Gayane Novikova to Regnum Information Analytical Agency

October 5, 2012

The Safarov Phenomenon within the Context of Azerbaijani Politics

Dr. Gayane Novikova

September 14, 2012

The extradition of Ramil Safarov from Hungary, his immediate pardon, and his definition as a national hero are all developments that fit neatly into the logic of Azerbaijan’s foreign and internal politics. The reaction in Armenia to these immoral actions by Azerbaijani authorities was also quite predictable: waves of protests and indignation, suspension of diplomatic relations with Hungary, toughening of the rhetoric emanating from Yerevan, and re-inclusion of the question of recognizing the Nagorno Karabakh Republic’s independence into the agenda of the Armenian Parliament. In addition, a flow of comments on the possibility of resumption of military action in the area of the Nagorno Karabakh conflict streamed from officials of a variety states and international organizations.

Gayane Novikova: “It is obvious that Russia is not interested in a clear definition of its position on the Nagorno Karabakh conflict”

Interview of Dr. Gayane Novikova to ArmInfo News Agency

July 25, 2012

A CLEAR ANALYSIS OF THE LEVEL OF GAINS AND LOSSES BY THE ARMENIAN SIDES IN THE CASE OF A TRANSFER OF PART OF THE TERRITORIES CONTROLLED BY NKR TO AZERBAIJAN IS ABSENT

Interview of Dr. Gayane Novikova to Regnum News Agency

March 21, 2012

ARMENIA IS TRYING TO FIT INTO THE REGIONAL SECURITY ENVIRONMENT

Interview of Dr. Gayane Novikova to the ArmInfo News Agency

February 10, 2012

Interview of Dr. Gayane Novikova, Director of the Center for Strategic Analysis Spectrum, President of the Marshall Center Armenian Alumni Association, Visiting Researcher, Harvard University (2008-2012), to the ArmInfo News Agency.

Making any decision without direct participation of Nagorno Karabakh is immoral

Dr. Gayane Novikova
Fragments of the interview to REGNUM Information Agency on June 22, 2011

REGNUM: On June 24, 2011, in Kazan (Tatarstan, Russian Federation) will be held a trilateral meeting of the presidents of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Russia. The Nagorno Karabakh conflict settlement is a key and only topic on its agenda. In your opinion, what can we expect from this meeting, taking into consideration that Presidents of Russia, the U.S. and France called their Armenian and Azerbaijani colleagues to conclude the work on the Basic principles of the Nagorno Karabakh conflict settlement?

The Burning East, Simmering Karabakh and the “United Caucasus:” An interview with Gayane Novikova

February 23, 2011

The correspondent of Informational Agency REGNUM discussed the destabilized situation in the Middle East, developments in the South Caucasus and, in particular, in Armenia, with Gayane Novikova, director of the Center for Strategic Analysis Spectrum

Samtskhe-Javakheti/ Javakhk in the Context of the Regional Developments

Sergey Sargsyan
February 14, 2011

The geographical location of the Samtskhe-Javakhetian region of Georgia at the junction of its borders with Armenia and Turkey, the complicated ethno-national situation, the routes of Baku-Tbilisi-Çeyhan oil pipeline and Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum gas pipeline, the beginning of construction of the Kars-Akhalkalaki railroad have predetermined the crossover of strategic interests of not only all South Caucasian countries, but also those of Russia, Turkey, Iran, United States of America and European Union just in this region.

Increasing of the Russian and Turkish Military presence in the South Caucasus

Gayane Novikova
October 20, 2010

Russia legalized its military presence in Abkhazia and South Ossetia and secured it on the territory of Azerbaijan, continuing the exploitation of the Gabala RLS. It also prolonged its military presence on the Armenian territory. However, in accordance with the recently signed Protocol on the introduction of amendments to the Agreement on the Russian Military Base in Armenia (August 2010), not only the term of its presence was extended, but also the sphere of its geographic and strategic responsibility was enlarged.

ARMENIA: A DIFFICULT ROAD TOWARD THE EUROPEAN AND THE EURO-ATLANTIC INTEGRATION

Dr. Gayane Novikova
March 25, 2010

The qualitatively new status quo, established in the aftermath of the August 2008 war in Georgia, is defined by a series of new developments and contributed to the very fragile stability in the South Caucasus.

Although there is no prospect that the current status quo in the South Caucasus can be considered as a final resolution of the conflicts, nonetheless, this status quo will last quite a long time, indeed as long as there is a visible balance of interests and powers among the main non-regional actors, and a military balance between the regional actors.

DEAR FRIENDS AND COLLEAGUES

On behalf of the researchers of the Center for Strategic Analysis I have the pleasure to welcome you in 2010 and express my hope that you will find new interesting and useful materials at the SPECTRUM website.

Summarizing the past year, which as a whole was successful for us, I would like to once again welcome two new members of our team – Dr. Alexander Markarov and Ms. Milena Oganesyan.

In 2009 we completed the long-term project “The Enemy Image: the Origins and Mechanisms of Its Overcoming on the Example of the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict.” The results of the research will be published in the first half of 2010.

THE STRENGTH AND WEAKNESS OF THE RUSSIAN CAUCASIAN POLITICS

Dr. Gayane Novikova
July 11, 2009

To analyze the Russian policy in the South Caucasus is very easy and very difficult in the meantime. Easy, as far as there is a kind of an axiom – Russia might act reflectively and might be dangerous.

And difficult, first, because there is a lack of strategic vision of the entire South Caucasus’s role in the Russian affairs and pragmatic approach to each of the states; second, the high level of predictability of Russia’s actions, motivated by protection of its strategic interests by any means, requires a very balanced, wise reaction from its partners and rivals; third, for the South Caucasian states themselves, viewing Russia just in black-and-white, it is a very hard task to keep the balance and to minimize far-reaching consequences of Russia’s both “love” and “hate.”

THE GHOST OF THE REGIONAL COOPERATION

GEOPOLITICAL COMPONENT AND INTERNATIONAL PRECEDENTS OF THE CONFLICTS SETTLEMENT

Interview of LTC (R.) Sergey Sargsyan to “168 Hours” Newspaper, Armenia
May 16, 2008

On the Verge of War, or Increasing Security Deficit in the South Caucasus

By Dr. Gayane Novikova
April 28, 2008

The South Caucasus proves its image of a disquieting periphery of Europe. Along with the increasing interest of some states of the European Union toward the Caspian oil and gas as an alternative source of energy resources to the Russian ones, there are growing doubts to the regional stability as it is.

ACTIVE FUNCTION OF THE CIVIL SOCIETY AS A CONDITION FOR THE SOCIAL CONFLICT LEGITIMIZATION

By Dr. Anahit Mkrtchyan
February 28, 2008

Various development processes of societies showed that inevitable conflicts between the groups, having different statuses, do not exclude at all that the interests of parties, being distinct from each other, also may coincide, giving the opportunity to find out the ways for achieving the balance and agreement among such parties. It is possible by means of the open discussion, when the agreement reached among the parties is necessarily based on the common interest.

JURIDICAL ESSENCE OF RESOLUTION 106: LEGAL AND POLITICAL ASPECTS

By Dr. Vladimir Vardanian
November 1, 2007

Adoption of Resolution 106 by the Committee on Foreign Affairs of the House of Representatives at the first session of the 110th U.S. Congress on recognition of the Genocide of Armenians had a tremendous resonance in the United States and the whole world. However, the adoption of this legal act was predictable, if one takes into account the accelerating process of recognizing the fact of the Genocide of Armenians by parliaments of various countries, as well as multiple attempts of the U.S. Congress to pass such resolution, which have taken place during the recent decade.

THE PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS IN TURKEY AND CRISIS OF KEMALISM

By Dr. Ruben Safrastyan
July 24, 2007

The prognoses of experts on the victory of the ruling party in these elections have completely come true.  In the Turkish history it is the unprecedented case that the ruling party not only has preserved its positions, but also sharply increased the number of supporters by 14%.  Usually the parties, coming to power, lose the substantial number of their electorate. (only in English )

PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS IN ARMENIA: WITHOUT ANY INTRIGUES BUT WITH THE “CASSETTE SCANDAL”

By LTC (Ret.) Sergey Sargsyan
April 26, 2007

By the results of the previous elections of 2003, the Republican Party of Armenia (RPA), “The Country of Law” Party (PCL) and the Armenian Revolutionary Federation “Dashnaktsutiun” (ARFD) composed a parliamentary coalition, which formed the Armenian Government. The RPA leader Andranik Margarian became Prime-Minister, the PCL leader Arthur Baghdasarian – speaker of the Parliament.  However, in July 2006, mainly due to tactical considerations (however, as it was announced, because of contradictions with its partners in the domestic, foreign policy issues and situation with democratization of the country), the PCL left the coalition, its leader and most of its representatives in the Government and Parliament  resigned.

DEAR FRIENDS AND COLLEAGUES

January 8, 2007

SPECTRUM’s team is happy to greet you in the New Year of 2007!
Before speaking about our plans, we would like to sum up some results of the last year

A PRAGMATIC DECISION TO JOIN EurAsEC WILL COMPLICATE ARMENIA’S STRATEGIC COURSE

Comments by Sergey Sargsyan to ArmiInfo Agency
August 23, 2006

A pragmatic decision to join EurAsEC will complicate Armenia’s strategic course for Euro-integration, which is possible in the distant perspective.

TURKEY: OPPOSITION WITHIN THE RULING PARTY

by Dr. Ruben Safrastyan
July 11, 2006

For the first time opposition within the Justice and Development Party (JDP) showed itself on the 3rd of October, 2005, during the party conference, discussing the text of the framework document, proposed by the EU, and containing a circle of the basic questions to be discussed in the talks on Turkey’s membership.

SOME COMMENTS ON THE U.S. NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGY

by Gayane Novikova
March 20, 2006

The basic aim of the U.S. National Security Strategy of 2006, like any such document is supposed to, is protection of security of the American people and American interests. Unlike the previous strategy presented in September 2002, i.e. a year after the terrorist attacks on New York and Washington, when the shock from what had happened, was still strong, – the new version of March 16, 2006, is more cut-out, tough and has absolutely clear setting: “We choose to deal with challenges now rather than leaving them for future generations.”

ANOTHER VECTOR IN THE GEORGIAN-RUSSIAN RELATIONS IS GAS

by Sergey Shakaryantz
January 20, 2006

The use of the gas factor by Russia as leverage for its policy, at least in the CIS space, is apparent. In particular, the Georgian-Russian relations have just been seriously tied up with that “gas factor.” 

THE NAGORNO-KARABAKH CONFLICT IN THE LIGHT OF THE ARMENOPHOBIA

THE START OF NEGOTIATIONS EU-TURKEY AND ARMENIA

by Dr. Ruben Safrastian
October 31, 2005

On October 3, 2005, the EU member states after long, often confidential discussions and numerous contradictory public statements decided in Luxemburg to start negotiations on Turkey’s membership in the European Union. The final text of the framework document approved both by the EU and Turkey has already been published.  The document formulates common principles on the basis of which the negotiations will be held; there is also a list of concrete problems to be discussed by the parties.

CORRECTION OF THE SECURITY SYSTEM OF THE SOUTH CAUCASUS

by Sergey Sargsyan
October 28, 2005

Armenia, as well as Georgia and Azerbaijan are on the stage of correction of the security system of the entire South Caucasian region. Remark at the Round Table discussion “NATO-Armenia” with the Ambassador R.Simmons, NATO SG Special Representative for Caucasus on October 28, 2005

ALONG THE RAIL-ROAD, OR QUOTING LAKOBA…

PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS IN THE NAGORNO KARABAKH REPUBLIC: RESULTS AND PROSPECTS

by Ashot Melyan
July 28, 2005

The interest to almost all elections in the post-Soviet space in the period of so called “second wave” democratization is growing with every new election, which can be explained by the fact that all such elections end up with “colored” revolutions with rare exceptions (Moldova).

That interest is even greater, if the elections are held in de facto independent states in the conditions when they are not internationally recognized and the conflicts, in which they are participating, have not yet been finally settled.

ON FORMATION OF THE POWER STRUCTURES OF IRAQ

by Sergey Sargsyan
June 17, 2005

Formation of the legitimate, though temporary, vertical of power in Iraq as a result of the popular vote in January 30, 2005, allows the coalition to start up the gradual handover of the control over the domestic political situation in the country to the national armed forces and law-enforcement bodies.

WARSAW: WHAT WAS BASIC, AND WHAT – SECONDARY…

by Sergey Shakaryantz
May 27, 2005

The increased interest to what was discussed during the meeting between the Presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan, which took place within the frameworks of the Warsaw summit of the Council of Europe on May 16-17, what kind of arrangements (Only in Russian)

THE SOUTH CAUCASUS WITHIN THE SECURITY SYSTEM OF THE BLACK SEA REGION

by Gayane Novikova
May 5, 2005

After recent principal changes in the geopolitical situation, the Black Sea region as a part of the Wider Europe has started to play a specific role in the European security system. In the meantime, the Black Sea region creates new opportunities for its member states, some of which unambiguously belong to the Europe, the others – Turkey, and three states of the South Caucasus have dual regional belonging.

COLLECTIVE MEMORY AND ITS EXPRESSION IN OUR DAYS

by Dr. Alexey Babayan
April 22, 2005

Within the project “The Nagorno Karabakh conflict: in search of the way out,” the Center for Strategic Analysis “SPECTRUM” held a wide sociological poll in Yerevan July 2004 to reveal the attitude of various sections of Armenian society to the settlement of the conflict. As far as the public opinion is also made up on certain stereotypes, our task was also to expose some ethno-stereotypes in the attitude of Armenians toward Azerbaijanis and trace their roots.

DENIAL OF THE PROBLEM AS ONE OF THE BASIC PRINCIPLES OF THE DOMESTIC AND FOREIGN POLICY OF AZERBAIJAN

by Alexander Grigorian
April 5, 2005

Some political researchers in the post-Soviet area are convinced that the next victim of the “velvet revolution” among the CIS countries will be Azerbaijan. These suppositions are based on the predictions that the oppositional forces, just like in Georgia and Kyrgyzstan, will be able to turn the parliamentary elections, to be held this autumn in Azerbaijan, against President Ilham Aliyev, demanding his resignation. The Azerbaijani opposition, which has already started to get prepared to the change of power in the country, is obviously of the same opinion.

LEBANON: FOREBODING OF THE CIVIL WAR

by Dr. Gayane Novikova
March 24, 2005

When analyzing the situation in Lebanon, it is necessary to take into account such domestic political factors as the structure of the power pyramid in the confessional way, the role of Hizbullah (“The Party of God”) organization and presence of the Syrian troops on the territory of the country since 1976. One of the main foreign political factors is Lebanon’s place in the Arab-Israeli conflict, the level of bilateral relations between Syria and Iran, and the geo-strategic belonging of this Arab country to two mega-systems –the Greater Middle East and the Mediterranean basin.

RUSSIA AND TURKEY IN THE SOUTH CAUCASUS: GEOSTRATEGIC DIMENSION

by Dr. Ruben Safrastyan
February 28, 2005

Two meetings of the Russian president V. Putin and Turkish Prime Minister R.T. Erdogan, held in the end of the last year and in the beginning of this year, as well as the wide spectrum of problems discussed and contents of the signed documents, marked the start of the a new phase in the Russian-Turkish relations. Experts spoke about that start in several recent years, and this phase can be characterized as the starting period of the real strategic process.

THE PACE RESOLUTION: LEVELS OF MOTIVATIONS

by Dr. Gayane Novikova
January 30, 2005

On January 25, the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) adopted Resolution No.1416 (2005), based on the report by the special rapporteur on Nagorno Karabakh David Atkinson. It is possible to speak and write about this in any genre – from a pamphlet like “The European déjà vu” to the tragedy “Karabakh, мy pain –,” but it is also possible to take it soberly and to try to find the way out of quite a complicated situation.

WHAT 2005 CAN GIVE TO THE SETTLEMENT OF THE NAGORNO KARABAKH CONFLICT