Security Challenges in the COVID-19 Epoch: The Case of Armenia

Dr. Gayane Novikova

October 18, 2020

Since February, 2020, the Armenian state and society have been dealing with an aggravating public health crisis and growing economic and social risks.  A sharp economic decline in the course of the COVID-19 pandemic is unavoidable. Although internal challenges stem from a gradually worsening economic situation; however, several issues specific to Armenia should be mentioned.

Internal Challenges

The post-revolutionary Armenian government has been simultaneously introducing and implementing a variety of economic, political, and legal reforms and actions. Many affect the interests of former corrupt political and economic elites.  Moreover, some of the economic reforms are not popular among those strata expecting quick and significant changes in their lives. Thus, the anger of the “formers” has coincided with disappointment by that segment of Prime Minister Pashinyan’s supporters who demand more radical measures.

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An Open Letter to the Citizens of Israel

October 16, 2020

Another war against humanity has been unleashed not far from Israel. Many of you may not know of your state’s direct engagement: Israel is involved by providing uninterrupted military support to one of the parties to the conflict at a time of open military confrontation.

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization: Can it Stabilize “Greater Central Asia”?

Dr. Gayane Novikova
April 20, 2020

A Few Preliminary Remarks

The Declaration of Establishment of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) mentions as main goals “strengthening mutual trust, friendship and good neighborliness between the member states; encouraging effective cooperation between them in the political, trade, economic, scientific, technical, cultural, educational, energy, transport, environmental and other fields; making joint efforts to maintain and ensure peace, security and stability in the region and establishing new, democratic, just and rational international political and economic order.” This analysis will concentrate on some issues related to the maintenance of security and stability. Before analyzing the potential of the SCO, a few preliminary remarks are necessary.  See more …

Russian-Turkish Relations Through the Prism of Armenia’s Security Concerns

Dr. Gayane Novikova
February 12, 2020

Recent developments in Eurasia and the Middle East require a re-evaluation of the security environment and the roles of each regional and sub-regional actor. Against the background of trends in global security politics, Russia and Turkey have become key actors in the Wider Black Sea and the South Caucasus regions, as well as in Syria.

The fight against terrorism (remains of ISIS, in particular) constitutes the only issue where Russian, Turkish, and Armenian interests coincide.  In all other cases, especially regarding any possible developments in the Nagorniy Karabakh conflict, Armenia should be very cautious in evaluating any shift in Russia-Turkey bilateral relations. The Armenian government is working on a new National Security Strategy that hopefully will address current dangerous trends. A draft was discussed in November, 2019. See more …

Armenia in a Shifting Security Environment

Dr. Gayane Novikova
October 25, 2019

In the context of a broad security analysis it is necessary to bring into focus the regional geopolitical environment. It critically – and increasingly – influences developments in and around every regional state. Meanwhile, a fragile regional security per se can greatly contribute to the escalation of existing local conflicts and even transform some of them into regional ones. The global security deficit is increasing. Armenia’s geopolitical location – at the core of an area that includes the South Caucasus, Russia, Turkey, and Iran – is very challenging. A hostile US – Russia relationship, growing disagreements between the US and Turkey, a new cycle of dangerous escalation of tension between the US and Iran, some improvement in Turkish-Iranian bilateral relations and the deepening ties of both states with Russia, – all these trends directly influence and shape the trajectory of Armenian foreign and security policy. Negative and / or unexpected developments in the wider region will seriously threaten Armenia’s security. To survive “a battle” between the global and regional actors it needs to demonstrate and to implement maximum flexibility and manoeuvrability. Armenia’s strategic location contains, alongside serious limitations, also some advantages. Therefore, geopolitics matters …again. See more