Dr. Gayane Novikova
October 16, 2024
A rapidly-changing strategic landscape demands additional flexibility from global and regional actors.President Biden’s mantra in his first days in the White House – “America is back” – indicated the renewed involvement of the USA in world affairs. It also meant that the US modus operandi as the most advanced actor in the great power competition, will be defined by its focus on preventing – as much as possible – any strategic vacuum that can be filled by its rivals, primarily China and, to a lesser extent, Russia. See more…
Dr. Gayane Novikova
May 8, 2023
The trilateral ceasefire agreement signed on 9 November 2020 between Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Russia created a serious shift in the balance of powers in the South Caucasus. Consequently, Russia’s influence on developments in this region has been brought into question by the close alliance between Turkey and Azerbaijan. For its part, Armenia has tried to recover following its devastating defeat on the battlefield. To the north, Georgia’s priorities continue to be framed by internal developments. See more…
Dr. Gayane Novikova
December 20, 2022
The ties and activity within the Turkey-Israel-Azerbaijan triad are motivated by mutual national and strategic interests and/or by coinciding political reasoning. The Broader Middle East and the Eastern Mediterranean constitute a complex geopolitical area saturated by a diversity of actors. Even though the preservation of fragile balance between them can become problematic, these states are steadily moving toward closer cooperation with each other. See more…
Dr. Gayane Novikova
March 20, 2022
The withdrawal of the Soviet troops from Afghanistan in 1989, dissolution of Yugoslavia and the war in Bosnia (1992-1995), the collapse of the Soviet Union, proclamation of the independent Republic of Ichkeria (Chechnya) and the first Russian-Chechen war (1994-96) —
triggered a global jihad in the end of 1980s – beginning 1990s. The Arab Spring greatly contributed to a further spread of Islamic radicalism. An establishment of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) and its branches in Afghanistan, North Caucasus, Central Asia, in several African states, Islamists mobility and ability to mobilize the most vulnerable segments in the different societies, increasing numbers of terrorist attacks against civilians, as well as an involvement of Islamist militants in the international conflicts and civil wars, – all these factors are the sources of concern for governments and societies dealing with unconventional threats. The Nagorniy Karabakh (NK) conflict provides a unique example where an internal utilization of the Islamic factor has intertwined with a long history of involvement and participation of Islamists mercenaries on the side of one of the parties – Azerbaijan. See more…
Dr. Gayane Novikova
November 20, 2021
Developments along Russia’s external borders require the precise attention of its political and military circles. In addition to the complicated relationships with the U.S., the EU, and China, Russia feels to a certain degree insecure as a result of a) being surrounded by non-friendly Baltic States, Poland, Ukraine, and Georgia; b) trying to maintain balanced relations with Armenia and Azerbaijan; and c) attempting to avoid any problems in Central Asia in the aftermath of the Afghan crisis. Russia builds its security belt either keeping or installing military bases or involving – sometimes forcibly –vulnerable neighboring states into its political, military, and economic spheres of influence. In the meantime, more “egocentric” Russia conducts a selective foreign policy, that focuses on those areas where it can gain maximum strategic advantage. In the meantime, serious limitations are apparent in Russia’s multilateral security policy. See more…
