October 30, 2020

Advanced weapons have been used by Azerbaijan against Artsakh (Nagorno Karabakh) and Armenia since September 27, 2020:

  • Russian “Smerch” and “Solntsepek;” Turkish T-300 Kasirga; Belarusian Polonez – all are multiple launch rocket systems;
  • Israeli LORA quasiballistic missiles;
  • Turkish Bayraktar and Israeli “Harop drones.

Finally, օn October 30, almost immediately after the OSCE statement, Azerbaijan used WMD (weapon of mass destruction): weapons spreading white phosphorus over Nagorno Karabakh have set on fire forests adjacent to civilian settlements.

Member states of NATO, the EU, and the representatives of several international bodies: Your concern for human rights, equality, liberty, freedom, and democracy is disingenuous! The truth is that you care only for your “strategic and national interests.” Therefore, you continue to remain silent. And it is YOUR silence that is killing my people.

Friends, representatives of all international bodies and analytical circles, I am not asking you to take side. I am asking only for distribution of nonbiased information regarding the actions of genocidal Azerbaijan and Turkey aimed to uproot my people from their motherland. The world must be aware and must implement peace enforcement.

An Open Letter to the Citizens of Israel

Another war against humanity has been unleashed not far from Israel. Many of you may not know of your state’s direct engagement: Israel is involved by providing uninterrupted military support to one of the parties to the conflict at a time of open military confrontation.

I am referring to the war which was unleashed by Azerbaijan and fully backed by Turkey and mercenaries from Syria and Libya against Armenia and the unrecognized Republic of Artsakh (Nagorno Karabakh). Whereas for Armenia and Artsakh this is a war for the right of Armenians to live, for Azerbaijan everything concerns territory and the ambitions of its authoritarian leadership.

Since the early morning of September 27, Israeli high-tech military navigational and surveillance equipment has been assisting Azerbaijani and Turkish pilots to shell Armenian cities, towns, civilian objects, and essential infrastructure with missiles and heavy artillery. Moreover, Israeli UAVs (drones) twice fired missiles on the Soorb Ghazanchetsotz (Holy Savior) Cathedral in the city of Shushi.

The Israeli Defense Forces did not buy from an Israeli producer LORA theater quasiballistic missile launchers owing to their devastating power. However, this weapon was sold to Azerbaijan in 2018 and was used at least once against the Armenian civilian population in the ongoing war.

Support of the aggressor during a time of war is immoral. It is even more immoral when originating from Israel. I allow myself to refer to the fact that the Jewish people once were on the verge of physical extermination. Armenians for the second time in their history are facing an existential threat.

As a professional, I understand quire well the meaning and usage of terms such as geopolitical, political, strategic, and national interest. As a human being, I cannot comprehend and silently accept the crimes against the humanity.

Dear Israelis,

Without voicing your strong protest against the continuing supply of Israeli high-tech military equipment to Azerbaijan, you place yourselves on the same plane as the aggressors fighting against my people. Please consider your moral obligations and stop the Israeli involvement in the Nagorno Karabakh conflict.

Dr. Gayane Novikova

Political-military analyst
Founding Director of the Spectrum Center for Strategic Analysis, Armenia

President of the George C. Marshal Center Armenian Alumni Association

Associate, Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies, Harvard University


October 16, 2020

Don’t Kill Yerevan!

It is very painful to observe how the old part of Yerevan has destroyed by the people who have nothing to do with my city. Some thoughts on this issue in my comment at aravot.am

Playing with Fire: After the Presidential Elections in Armenia

February 25, 2013

On February 18, 2013, Armenia elected its new president. According to official information, the incumbent Serzh Sargsyan received 58.64 % of the vote and his closest opponent – Raffi Hovhannisian – 36.75 %. The defeated candidate now demands revision of the election results, and is organizing rallies.

In a stable democracy, the defeated candidate is expected to congratulate the winner. Both then attempt either to work together or to begin preparations for the next election cycle. Both scenarios are not working in Armenia. Continue reading


The major priorities of the West in the South Caucasus are a preservation of the relative stability in each state in the region, a prevention of the escalation of conflicts, an uninterrupted supply of energy resources, attempts to control migration and to improve the level of human rights and the rule of law implementation.

However, the visit this month of Nicolas Sarkozy in the South Caucasus has caused great excitement in all three capitals. The first visit of the President of France to the region was in August, 2008; it aimed to find an appropriate framework for a resolution of the overt confrontation between Russia and Georgia. It resulted in the “Medvedev – Sarkozy Plan.” Continue reading

I am not an ecologist

I am not an ecologist; I am not a member of the Green party. I am an ordinary citizen of Armenia and a resident of Yerevan. I never wrote about environmental problems. But all my life I live on Abovian Street, in one of the greenest parts of the city.

In the winter of 1994, walking my dog in the early morning in University Park, I saw a man (one of my neighbors) who began to saw down a large silver poplar tree. I asked him to stop, but he waved the saw at me. My dog – a big German shepherd – jumped. The man threw his saw down and run away.

I am proud and happy that the beautiful tree is still alive, and I that I can touch its trunk when walking by.

Now, in 2011, when there is no lack of electricity or gas (which could be considered as an excuse for tree-cutting in the mid-90s) I ask my fellow citizens: what you are doing?! Why are you becoming so barbarian and why do you allow the cutting of small trees, all of which try to keep fresh air in my city? Who allows you to behave like this without any fear of being punished, neither by man nor by God?

Give my green city back!

P.S. 16 small trees were cut in the area adjacent to the Dramatic Theatre, on Isahakian Street.


Reflections upon the OSCE Astana Summit

The Presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan and the Heads of the delegations of the OSCE Minsk Group co-chair countries, released a joint statement on December 2, 2010, during the OSCE summit in Astana. They “agreed that the time has come for more decisive efforts to resolve the Nagorno Karabakh conflict.” The only relatively new element in this statement was a reference to the UN Charter as one of the cornerstones for the conflict’s resolution. Taking into account the ineffective role of the UN in conflict resolution generally, it is possible to state that the deadlocked situation in this conflict will continue. However, there are some visible changes in the behavior of the parties to the conflict and the so-called external actors. Continue reading

Dear Colleagues and Friends, we are back on the Net!

Due to some unexpected technical reasons the website of our Center was disabled during more than four months. However, we have used this ‘misfortune’ to restructure it and to create an opportunity to be in direct contact with you.

I hope that our discussions of urgent events and dynamics of main trends and developments in the South Caucasus and beyond will be professional and of interest to the participants.


Gayane Novikova