Regional Security Issues: 2015

Editor-in-Chief Dr. Gayane Novikova Translated by Ashot Melyan


Center for Strategic Analysis Spectrum expresses its gratefulness to the Embassy of the Republic of Poland in the Republic of Armenia and the Lubawa Armenia, CJSC, for their generous support of this publication.

Introduction 9
Tomasz Knothe The European Union and the South Caucasus: Expectations and Challenges 12
Gayane Novikova The Russia-Turkey Confrontation and Its Implications for the South Caucasus 21
Stephen Blank Russia and the Caucasus since the Invasion of Ukraine: Providing More Fuel for the Fire 37
Sergey Markedonov Russia’s Role in the Big Caucasus in the Shadow of Ukraine and the Middle East 55
Kemal Kirişci, Andrew Moffatt Turkey and the South Caucasus: An Opportunity for Soft Regionalism? 67
Farhad Atai Regional Security in the Aftermath of the JCPOA 89
Aghasi Tadevosyan Challenges of Transition in Post-Soviet Armenia: Protest Movements, Power, and Society 101
Oktay Tanrisever Azerbaijan’s Political Economy and Foreign Policy in 2015 114
Giorgi Gogsadze Georgia Enters an Election Year 128
Sergey Sargsyan The Islamic State as a Tool and Pretext of Changing the Regional Balance of Forces: Lessons for the Future 138
About the Authors 150