Archives

ARMENIA: THE APRIL 2-5 EVENTS AS A CATALYST FOR THE STATE’S INTERNAL PROBLEMS
By Dr. Gayane Novikova

Contents:

• Introduction: Armenia’s National Security Challenges
• Armenia: Quo Vadis?
• The Hot of 2016 Summer
• Political Stability as a Backwater for the Ruling Elite
• Revolution? Evolution? Stagnation?
• Conclusion

_{October 2016}

THE APRIL WAR OF 2016: IMPLICATIONS FOR THE NAGORNO KARABAKH REPUBLIC
Masis Mayilian

Contents:

• Introduction
• The Reasons of the April War
• The April War and the Negotiation Process
• The April War and the Mass Media
• Lustration of the Civilian Peacekeepers
• On Some Transformations and Lessons Learned
• Conclusions and Recommendations

SOME REASONS AND CONSEQUENCES OF THE ESCALATION OF HOSTILITIES IN THE NAGORNO KARABAKH ON APRIL 2-5, 2016
Vladimir Dashko

Contents:

• Introduction
• In Search of the Guilty
• Prognoses of the Analysts and their Perceptions by the Armenian Authorities and Society
• Some Feedbacks from an Uncalled Experiences of Local Conflicts
• Conclusion

THE RUSSIAN-TURKISH CONFRONTATION AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR THE SOUTH CAUCASUS
By Dr. Gayane Novikova

Contents:

• Introduction
• Russia vs. Turkey: similarities and differences
• The South Caucasus: Between a Rock and a Hard Place
• Conclusions

EVERYDAY MIGRATION IN ARMENIA: REASONS, PRACTICES, AND CHALLENGES
Dr. Aghasi Tadevosyan

Contents

• • Introduction
  • The General State of Migration in Armenia
  • Reasons and Objectives for Migration
  • The Problems of Determining the Migration Objective and Destination
  • Individual, Interpersonal and Public Practices
  • Conclusions

ARMENIA-TURKEY-AZERBAIJAN:  BOUND TO EACH OTHER
By Dr. Gayane Novikova

Contents:

Introduction

Reluctant Neighbors, or How the Knot Was Tied

Armenia – Azerbaijan: exhausted but still firm in their perceptions
Armenia-Turkey: Looking for a Space for Maneuvering?
The Recognition of the Armenian Genocide
The Armenian-Turkish Border and Azerbaijan’s Factor

September, 2015

RUSSIA IN THE BIG CAUCASUS

By Dr. Sergey Markedonov

&

PROSPECTS FOR DEVELOPMENTS AROUND THE SOUTH CAUCASUS CONFLICTS

By Dr. Alexander Skakov

July, 2014

THE CONFLICT POTENTIAL OF THE GREATER MIDDLE EAST AS A RESOURCE OF IRAN’S FOREIGN POLICY: SYRIA AND AFGHANISTAN

By Vladimir Dashko

Contents:

• Iran and the region
• Objectives of the Iranian foreign policy
• Historic experience of survival of Shiite communities
• Syria: challenges and opportunities for Iran
• Tehran’s Afghani policy
• Conclusion

January, 2014

GEORGIA’S NEW UNCERTAINTIES: FROM PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS OF 2012 TO AFTER THE VILNIUS SUMMIT
By Dr. George Tarkhan-Mouravi

Contents:

• After the Elections
• The European Choice
• Geopolitical Implications
• Uncertainties and Expectations

December, 2013

THE MODELS OF SOVEREIGNTY IN THE SOUTH CAUCASUS

By Dr. Gayane Novikova 

Contents:

• Introduction: State Sovereignty
• Sovereignty: From ‘By Any Means’ to ‘By No Means’
-Abkhazia – Georgia – South Ossetia;
-Armenia – Nagorno Karabakh – Azerbaijan.
• Sovereignty Over the Territory as a Key to Understand the Regional Developments.

November, 2013

NEW CIVIC ACTIVITY IN ARMENIA IN LIGHT OF COMPLEX DYNAMICS BETWEEN THE RULING ELITE & THE OPPOSITION
By Dr. Gayane Novikova

Contents

•  Introduction
• The State: Managing Democracy
• The Opposition in Opposition to Itself
• The Distribution of Political Forces in the 2013 Presidential Election
• The Strength of External Actors
• Awakened Civic Society: Initiatives “From the Bottom”
• Conclusion

August, 2013

ARMENIA: REGIONAL NUANCES OF THE RAPPROCHEMENT WITH THE EU AND HARD SECURITY ISSUES
Vladimir Dashko

Contents:

– The Regional European Projects

– Nuances in the Approaches

– Some Alarming Elements

– Some Aspects of Mutual Interests

“The Eastern Neighborhood” in the Foreign Policy of the South Caucasus States

– The Eurasian Alternative

– Moscow’s Activity

– Concluding Remarks

July 2013

THE SOUTH CAUCAUS: UNDERLINING THE (IN)SECURITY
Dr. Gayane Novikova

Contents

• Introduction

• The External Actors: New Trends in Interaction with the South Caucasus States

• The South Caucasus: Choosing Landmarks

           – Azerbaijan: Playing a Regional Power

           – “The Georgian Dream:” Where to Next?

           – Armenia: In Anticipation of Changes

• Conclusion

April 2013

THE NAGORNO KARABAKH CONFLICT THROUGH THE PRISM OF THE IMAGE OF THE ENEMY 

Dr. Gayane Novikova

Contents:

– Introduction.

– The Image of the Enemy in the Armenian and Azerbaijani Societies on the Eve of the USSR Collapse and Immediately Afterwards.

– The Dynamics of Self-Identification by the Armenians.

– The Dynamics of Self-Identification by the Azerbaijanis and the Increase of Militaristic Rhetoric.

– Mutual Repulsion of the Armenian and Azerbaijani Societies.

– Conclusion

STATUS QUO IN NAGORNO KARABAKH CONFLICT: CHALLENGING FOR FIRMNESS

Vladimir Dashko

Content:

– Introduction

– Geopolitical and economic factors influencing the dynamics of the conflict

– The NK conflict through the prism of political developments in Armenia, Azerbaijan and Nagorno Karabakh

– Armenia – Azerbaijan – Nagorno Karabakh: the sustainable configuration of the balance of forces as it varies from the status quo

– The conditions for a resumption of overt conflict

– The common scenarios for military action

– Conclusion

IMPLEMENTATION OF THE PRINCIPLE OF SELF-DETERMINATION OF NATIONS BEYOND THE FRAMEWORKS OF DECOLONIZATION

Dr. Vladimir Vardanyan

March 20, 2011

Content:

– Introduction

– On the formation and development of the principle of equal rights of nations and the right to self-determination

– Variations of the principle of the right of nations to self-determination

– The external self-determination

– The examples of realization of the right to self-determination by means of accession to another state or unification with it

– Conclusion

March 20, 2011

SOME ASPECTS OF TURKEY’S POLICY IN THE SOUTH CAUCASUS IN THE CONTEXT OF ITS RELATIONS WITH THE EU AND RUSSIA

29 September, 2010

By Dr. Gayane Novikova

Contents

Introduction

• Turkey – EU relationship as a stimulus for diversification of the Turkish foreign policy
• Turkey – the South Caucasus: through the prism of the relationship with the EU
• The South Caucasus as a front yard for Turkey and Russia
• The division lines in the Turkish policy in the South Caucasus
• Conclusion

29 September, 2010

32 pages. Only for subscribers 

THE ISLAMIC FACTOR IN AZERBAIJAN: A GEOPOLITICAL CONTEXT

By Dr. Gayane Novikova

Contents

• Introduction: Some features of the religious revival
• The growing significance of the religious factor and accelerated radicalization of Islam in Azerbaijan
• The Nagorno Karabakh conflict as one of the sources of the radicalization of the society.
• Conclusion

27 April, 2010

23 pages. Only for subscribers

CONSTRUCTING AND DECONSTRUCTING HISTORIES: THE ETHNICITY FACTOR IN THE NAGORNO KARABAKH CONFLICT

By Milena Oganesyan

Contents

• Introduction
• Definitions and theoretical approaches.
• Nagorno Karabakh: history, ethnicity and conflict.
• What is next?
• Conclusion.

February 24, 2010

15 pages. Only for subscribers.

THE ISSUES OF LEGAL VALIDITY OF PEACE TREATIES OF ARMENIA AND RELATING TO ARMENIA: AN INTERNATIONAL LEGAL ANALYSIS

By Dr. Vladimir Vardanyan

Contents

• Introduction
  • Provisions of World War I Peace Treaties of Armenia
  • The 1918 Treaty of Batum as the first international agreement of independent Armenia;
  • Analysis of the Provisions of the 1920 Treaty of Sèvres relating to Armenia;
  • The 1920 Treaty of Alexandropol between the Republic of Armenia and the Grand National Assembly of Turkey;
  • The 1921 Treaties of Moscow and Kars.
• The Republic of Armenia and the early XX century peace treaties
  • state position on the issue of international treaties signed, ratified or acceded before the Declaration of Independence;
  • the issues of possible ratification or confirmation of the early XX century international treaties by the National Assembly of the Republic of Armenia.

• Conclusion

September 30, 2009

20 pages. Only for subscribers.

THE GEORGIAN “GAMBIT”, OR BY THE RESULTS OF THE FIVE-DAY WAR

By Dr. Gayane Novikova

Contents

• Introduction: The “New Generation” conflicts as a new type of war
• Some Features of the Conflicts in Georgia
• “The Thorns” of the “Rose Revolution”
• The Russian Factor
• Conclusion: Reformatting of the Regional Security System

March 20, 2009

25 pages. Only for subscribers

THE IMAGE OF THE ENEMY IN THE NAGORNO KARABAKH CONFLICT

Sociological Survey

By Dr. Anahit Mkrtchian

Contents

• Description of the problem and the brief history of the conflict
• The image of the enemy: the roots and essence of the problem
• The image of the enemy in the folklore
• Why is the task of overcoming the image of the enemy is difficult to solve?
• Possibilities for cooperation
• Recommendations

January 10, 2009

29 pages. Only for subscribers.

POWER AND OPPOSITION IN THE REPUBLIC OF ARMENIA

By Dr. Mariam Margarian

Contents

• Introduction
• Transformation of the ruling elite of Armenia in the process of democratization of the political system
• The problem of power and opposition activity in the context of the value polarization of the democratic consolidation
• Scenarios of the political development in the activity of power and opposition in Armenia

October 6, 2008

18 pages. Only for subscribers

IRAN AS A REGIONAL POWER: PROBLEMS AND PERSPECTIVES

Contents

Prof. Farhad Atai. Current Development in Iran in Historical Perspective

• Introduction
• A look at history
• Religion
• Pride
• Conclusion

Dr. Gayane Novikova. Some Aspects of the Iranian Foreign Policy

• Introduction
• Shifts in the approaches toward Iran
• Shifts in Iran’s approaches
• The South-Caucasian vector of the Iranian policy

Dr. Sevak Sarukhanyan. Iran’s Political Development and Energy Policy

• The New Iranian Parliament and possible changes in the energy policy
• Shifts in the energy policy of Iran

August 8, 2008

23 pages. Only for subscribers

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS IN RUSSIA AND IN THE UNITED STATES: IMPLICATIONS FOR ARMENIA

By Richard Giragosian

Contents

• Introduction
• Implications of the Russian presidential election
  • The Medvedev strategy
  • The similarities of Russian and Armenian politics
  • The Medvedev presidency
  • Revising the Russian military doctrine
  • Countering the rise of a rival
  • Russian policy in the “Near Abroad”
  • The asymmetry of Russian-Armenian relations
  • Possible changes to Russian-Armenian relations
• Implications of the US elections
  • The contest of the candidates
  • Implications for Armenian-American concerns
  • The primacy of the U.S. Congress
  • The broader imperative of U.S.-Russian relations
• Conclusion

June 10, 2008

23 pages. Only for subscribers.

TURKEY IN A NEW GEOPOLITICAL SITUATION: VIEWS FROM ARMENIA AND TURKEY

Contents

• Dr. Gayane Novikova. Turkey: some shifts in the foreign policy.
• Prof. Mustafa Aydin. Turkey: internal developments and foreign policy.
• Sergey Sargsyan. The army and the Islamization process in Turkey.

May 12, 2008

31 pages. Only for subscribers.

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS OF 2008 IN THE REPUBLIC OF ARMENIA

IN THE CONTEXT OF THE POLITICAL DEVELOPMENT

Dr. Mariam Margarian

Contents

• Introduction
• The value orientation of the political development:
• Innovation of the system of values in the Republic of Armenia
• Crises of the political development and process of democratization of the political System
• The multifaceted nature of the political culture in the Presidential elections in Armenia
• Instead of conclusion: a leader as a carrier of the governance principles

February 18, 2008.

20 pages. Only for subscribers.

RUSSIA’S WITHDRAWAL FROM THE CFE TREATY AND THE NEW ANTI-MISSILE DEFENSE BASES IN EUROPE:

PERSPECTIVES FOR THE SOUTH CAUCASUS

LTC (Ret.) Sergey Sargsyan

Contents

• Introduction
• The system of Arms Treaties and its collapse
• Russia: the ABM Treaty and the new bases in Europe
• Around Gabala: Moscow’s strategy
• The domino principle: the ABM Treaty, the CFE Treaty…
• Conclusion

November 9, 2007

28 pages. Only for subscribers.

ENERGY SECURITY IN THE SOUTH CAUCASUS

Richard Giragosian

Contents

• Abstract
• Introduction
• The new strategic significance of the South Caucasus
• Iran: pragmatic approach to Armenia and challenge for Azerbaijan
• Azerbaijani energy as a bid for regional dominance
• Energy security in the South Caucasus

August 5, 2007.

23 pages. Only for subscribers.

PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS IN ARMENIA AS A FACTOR OF FORMATION OF THE DEMOCRATIC CONSOLIDATION

Dr. Mariam Margarian

Contents

• Introduction
• Tasks of the democratic consolidation
• A.Campbell’s “Funnel of Causality” and electoral processes in Armenia
• Models of the democratic transformation of Armenia
• The ways of overcoming the crises of political development

July 27, 2007

25 pages. Only for subscribers

THE WIDER BLACK SEA – A NEW DIMENTION OR A VICIOUS CIRCLE?

Dr. Gayane Novikova

Contents

• Introduction
• Wider Black Sea: a new field of activity for EU and USA
• A new cycle of internal competition
• South Caucasus as a part of the Wider Black Sea
• Challenges and perspectives

May 15, 2007

22 pages. Only for subscribers

THE PROBLEMS OF DEMOCRATIC TRANSFORMATION

IN THE REPUBLIC OF ARMENIA

Dr. Mariam Margarian

Contents

• Introduction
• Multidimensionality of the democratic transformation model
• Specifics of the transition period of Armenia
• Trajectory of the democratic transformation of Armenia
• Stages of the democratic transformation of Armenia
• Conclusion

March 30, 2007.

22 pages. Only for subscribers.

AZERBAIJAN: OIL – WEAPONS – WAR?

Sergey Sargsyan

Contents

• Introduction
• Proportion of forces
• Oil factor
• Around the NKC: general background
• Baku’s military rhetoric
• Oil – corruption – arms
• Military reform and the main directions of the military and technological cooperation of Azerbaijan
• Balance of forces and the tactics of re-armament of the Azerbaijani armed forces
• Symmetry and asymmetry of the response
• The prospects
• Conclusion

February 28, 2007

33 pages. Only for subscribers.

LOOKING BEYOND BORDERS: ARMENIA`S STRATEGIC POSITION IN THE SOUTH CAUCASUS

Richard Giragosian

Contents

• Introduction
• Looking beyond Armenia’s borders
• Armenia’s immediate neighborhood
• Turkey’s unresolved internal vulnerabilities
• Turkey and the war on terrorism
• The decline in Turkish-U.S. military relations
• Azerbaijan as a Central Asian state
• Georgia to the North
• Armenia from the Iranian perspective
• Iran from the Armenian perspective
• The outlook
• Conclusion

January 20, 2007

19 pages. Only for subscribers.

ARMENIAN-GEORGIAN RELATIONS: PROBLEMS AND PROSPECTS

Contents

• Welcome address of Ambassador Revaz Gachechiladze
• Paata Zakareishvili. The Georgian-Armenian relations: a view from Georgia.
• Gayane Novikova. The Armenian-Georgian relations as one of the components of the regional security.
• Sergey Sargsyan. The  Armenian-Georgian relations within the context of the political-military trends in
• the region.
• Round table discussion.

August 15, 2006

41 pages. Only for subscribers.

TO THE ISSUE OF MECHANISMS OF THE CONFLICT SETTLEMENT BETWEEN NKR AND AZERBAIJAN

Sergey Shakaryantz

Contents

• After Rambouillet
• The Kosovo precedent
• Some mechanisms of the settlement
• Conclusion

April 20, 2006

19 pages. Only for subscribers.

PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS AND THE CHOICE OF UKRAINE

Sergey Sargsyan

Contents

• Introduction
• The year between elections: losses and gains
• Coalition prospects
• Electoral split: trends and perspectives
• Integration projects
• Conclusion

March 20, 2006

22 pages. Only for subscribers.

THE LOGIC OF UNRESOLVED CONFLICTS IN THE SOUTH CAUCASUS

Dr. Gayane Novikova

Contents

• Some general remarks
• The South Ossetia: dangerous games
• All vs. All
• Some statistics
• Conclusion

March 20, 2006

21 pages. Only for subscribers.

KAZAKHSTAN’S OIL AS A WEAPON of GEOPOLITICS

Sergey Sargsyan

Contents

• Introduction
• Moscow’s interests
• Kazakhstan: economy and politics
• Factor of China
• Bypassing Bosphorus and Ukraine
• Conclusion

February 22, 2006

18 pages. Only for subscribers.

THE STRENGTH AND THE WEAKNESS OF THE RUSSIAN POLICY IN THE SOUTH CAUCASUS

Dr. Gayane Novikova

Contents

• Introduction: Factors impacting on the Russian policy in the region
• The models of political behavior in bilateral relations
• Russia in the conflicts in the South Caucasus
• Conclusion

December 28, 2005

18 pages. Only for subscribers.

GEOPOLITICS, OIL AND MILITARIZATION OF THE CASPIAN

Sergey Sargsyan

Contents

• Introduction
• Oil: economy and policy
• Militarization: on land and on the sea
• NATO and SCO
• Instead of conclusion

December 28, 2005

23 pages. Only for subscribers.

SHIFTS IN SECURITY IN THE SOUTH CAUCASUS

By Richard Giragosian

Contents

• Introduction: The shift in the regional security
• The new threat matrix
• U.S. Partners and players
• The Central Asian theater
• U.S. engagement in the Caucasus
• The U.S. military agenda for Azerbaijan
• Armenia’s strategic opportunities

October 28, 2005

17 pages. Only for subscribers.

TURKEY IN A NEW GEOPOLITICAL SITUATION: EXPECTATIONS IN ARMENIA

Contents:

• Instead of the introduction
• Turkey, the European Union and Armenian-Turkish relations in June 2005: Discussing the geo-strategy
• Armenia – Turkey: mutual economic interests
• The military and political aspects of the Turkish policy
• Turkey and the Karabakh Conflict: the parameters of involvement into the conflict dynamics
• Instead of the conclusion

September 15, 2005

35 pages. Only for subscribers.

(IN)SECURITY SYSTEM OF THE SOUTH CAUCASUS: A GEOPOLITICAL CONTEXT

Dr. Gayane Novikova

Contents

• The “Hazy” region
• Deficit of Security
• The reluctant neighbors
• Insecurity vs. security

July 28, 2005

22 pages. Only for subscribers.

Some Aspects of the Military and Political Situation in the Middle East

By Sergey Sargsyan

Contents

• Introduction
• Iraq: stable instability
• The Lebanon crisis: in search of the way out
• Syria: under the pressure
• Iran: under the rapt attention
• Conclusion

June 13, 2005

19 pages. Only for subscribers.

A TEST OF MATURITY: THE GENOCIDE FACTOR IN ARMENIA’S FOREIGN POLICY

By Dr. Ruben Safrastyan

Contents:

• Introduction
• The Genocide factor as an item on the agenda of Armenian foreign policy
• The Genocide factor in Armenian foreign policy:
• Prospects
• Conclusion: a test of maturity

April 18, 2005

10 pages. Only for subscribers.

UKRAINE: THE ELECTIONS AND AFTER

By Sergey Sargsyan

Contents:

• Introduction
• Background of the electoral split
• The role of financial and industrial groups
• Political Reform
• Party building and creation of blocs
• Conclusion

March 9, 2005

20 pages. Only for subscribers.