Regional Security Issues: 2015

Editor-in-Chief Dr. Gayane Novikova Translated by Ashot Melyan

---

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

Center for Strategic Analysis Spectrum expresses its gratefulness to the Embassy of the Republic of Poland in the Republic of Armenia and the Lubawa Armenia, CJSC, for their generous support of this publication.

---

Contents
Introduction		9
Tomasz Knothe	The European Union and the South Caucasus: Expectations and Challenges	12
Gayane Novikova	The Russia-Turkey Confrontation and Its Implications for the South Caucasus	21
Stephen Blank	Russia and the Caucasus since the Invasion of Ukraine: Providing More Fuel for the Fire	37
Sergey Markedonov	Russia’s Role in the Big Caucasus in the Shadow of Ukraine and the Middle East	55
Kemal Kirişci, Andrew Moffatt	Turkey and the South Caucasus: An Opportunity for Soft Regionalism?	67
Farhad Atai	Regional Security in the Aftermath of the JCPOA	89
Aghasi Tadevosyan	Challenges of Transition in Post-Soviet Armenia: Protest Movements, Power, and Society	101
Oktay Tanrisever	Azerbaijan’s Political Economy and Foreign Policy in 2015	114
Giorgi Gogsadze	Georgia Enters an Election Year	128
Sergey Sargsyan	The Islamic State as a Tool and Pretext of Changing the Regional Balance of Forces: Lessons for the Future	138
About the Authors		150